Forecast of the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply in 2023
The forecast of the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply is to investigate and study the factors affecting the supply and demand of outdoor energy storage power supply market by using scientific forecasting techniques and methods on the basis of various information and materials obtained from the outdoor energy storage power supply market survey. analyze and foresee the development trend of outdoor energy storage power supply, grasp the law of supply and demand changes in the outdoor energy storage power supply market, and provide a reliable basis for business decision-making.
In order to improve the scientific level of management and reduce the blindness of decision-making, it is necessary to grasp the relevant dynamics of economic development or future changes in the outdoor energy storage power supply market through forecasting the development prospects of outdoor energy storage power supplies, reduce future uncertainties, and reduce the possibility of decision-making. risk, so that the decision-making objectives can be successfully achieved.
1. Determine the target
Clarifying the purpose is the first step in forecasting the development prospects of outdoor energy storage power sources. Because the purpose of the forecast is different, the content and items of the forecast, the required data and the methods used will be different. Clearly predicting the target is to formulate forecasting projects, formulate forecasting work plans, prepare budgets, deploy forces, and organize implementation based on the problems existing in the business activities of outdoor energy storage power companies, so as to ensure that the forecasting of the development prospects of outdoor energy storage power sources is planned and well-organized. proceed rhythmically.
2. Collect data
Sufficient data must be obtained to predict the development prospects of outdoor energy storage power supplies. Only with sufficient data can we provide a reliable basis for analysis and judgment for the forecast of the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply. Under the guidance of the development prospect forecast plan of outdoor energy storage power supply, investigating and collecting relevant data is an important part of forecasting the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply, and it is also the basic work of forecasting.
3. Selection method
According to the forecast target and the applicable conditions of various forecast methods, select the appropriate forecast method. Sometimes multiple forecasting methods can be used to forecast the same target. Whether the prediction method is selected properly will directly affect the accuracy and reliability of the prediction. The core of using the method of forecasting the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply is to establish a model that describes and summarizes the characteristics and changing laws of the research object, and calculates or processes according to the model to obtain the prediction result.
4. Analysis and correction
Analysis and judgment is a comprehensive analysis of the data collected by investigation, and through judgment and reasoning, the perceptual knowledge is upgraded to rational knowledge, from the phenomenon of things to the essence of things, so as to predict the future development trend of the outdoor energy storage power supply market. On the basis of analysis and judgment, the original prediction results are usually evaluated and corrected based on the latest information.
5. Write a report
The outdoor energy storage power supply forecast report should summarize the main activities of the forecast research, including the forecast target, the forecast object and the analysis conclusion of relevant factors, the main information and data, the selection of forecast method and the establishment of the model, as well as the evaluation and analysis of the forecast conclusion and fixes etc.
Relevant research results:
2023-2028 China's Outdoor Energy Storage Power Supply Market Status Survey and Industry Prospect Analysis Report
Global and Chinese Outdoor Energy Storage Power Industry Status Analysis and Prospect Trend Forecast Report (2023-2028)
2023-2028 China Lithium Battery Energy Storage Power Supply Market Status and Development Prospect Report
To forecast the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply well, it is necessary to grasp four basic elements of the forecast:
1. Information. Information is the characterization and reflection of the characteristics and changes of objective things, exists in various carriers, and is the main work object, work basis and result reflection of outdoor energy storage power forecasting.
2. Method. Methods refer to the various means used in the qualitative and quantitative analysis in the forecasting process. Forecasting methods can be divided into different categories according to different criteria. According to the attributes of outdoor energy storage power forecast results, it can be divided into qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast. According to the length of forecast, it can be divided into long-term forecast, medium-term forecast and short-term forecast. According to the method itself, it can be divided into many categories, the most basic ones are model prediction and non-model prediction.
3. Analysis. Analysis is a thinking research activity based on relevant theories. After the prediction conclusion is drawn according to the prediction method, two aspects of analysis must be carried out: one is to analyze whether the prediction result meets the conditions of economic theory and statistical analysis in theory; the other is to analyze the accuracy of the prediction error in practice, And evaluate the reliability of the prediction results.
4. Judgment. Forecasting should follow certain procedures and steps to make work orderly, overall planning and collaboration.
There are many methods to predict the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply, mainly as follows:
1. Time series
In the forecast of the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply, a series of economic index values that change according to time are often encountered, such as the annual (seasonal) sales and supply of outdoor energy storage power supply enterprise products, etc., which are arranged in chronological order A set of data is called a time series. The method of forecasting in terms of time series is called time series forecasting.
2. Return
(1) The meaning of "return". Regression refers to the analysis and study of the dependence between a variable (dependent variable) and one or several other variables (independent variables), the purpose of which is to estimate or predict the dependent variable based on a set of known independent variable data values. The population mean of the variable. In economic forecasting, people regard the forecasting object (economic index) as the dependent variable, and those influencing factors closely related to the forecasting object as independent variables. According to the historical and statistical data of the two, a regression model is established, which is used for prediction after statistical testing. Regression prediction has a single variable regression prediction of an independent variable and multiple regression prediction of multiple independent variables. Only the single linear regression prediction method is discussed here.
(2) Basic conditions for regression analysis. When applying a set of known independent variable data to estimate and predict the value of a dependent variable, the two variables need to meet the following two conditions:
First, statistical correlation. Statistical correlation is an uncertain functional relationship, that is, a functional relationship in which the value of a dependent variable (predictor variable) is significantly related to the value of one or more independent variables but cannot be determined precisely and uniquely. is a random variable. There are many such correlations in economic phenomena.
Second, causality. If one or several independent variable x changes, it affects another variable y according to a certain law, but the change of y cannot affect x, that is, the change of x is the cause of the change of y, not the opposite, then it is said that there is a relationship between x and y A causal relationship, a model that reflects a causal relationship is called a regression model.
3. Qualitative and quantitative
Another classification method for classifying development prospect forecasts can generally be divided into two categories: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. For enterprise marketing managers, the enterprise forecasting methods that should be understood and mastered mainly include:
(1) Qualitative prediction method
Qualitative forecasting method is also called intuitive judgment method, which is a method often used in forecasting the development prospect of outdoor energy storage power supply. Qualitative forecasting mainly relies on the information, experience and comprehensive judgment ability of forecasters to predict the future status and development trend of the market. This type of prediction method is simple and easy to implement, and is especially suitable for those problems where it is difficult to obtain comprehensive data for statistical analysis. Therefore, qualitative forecasting methods have been widely used in forecasting the development prospects of outdoor energy storage power sources. Qualitative prediction methods include: expert meeting method, Delphi method, sales staff opinion collection method, customer demand intention survey method.
(2) Quantitative forecasting method
Quantitative forecasting is to use relatively complete historical data and use mathematical models and measurement methods to predict the future market demand for outdoor energy storage power supplies. Quantitative forecasting basically falls into two categories, one is time series patterns and the other is causal patterns.
As the competition in the outdoor energy storage power supply industry continues to intensify, and the mergers and acquisitions, integration and capital operations among large enterprises are becoming more and more frequent, excellent outdoor energy storage power supply companies at home and abroad are paying more and more attention to the analysis and research of the outdoor energy storage power supply market, especially for the outdoor energy storage power supply market. In-depth research on the current outdoor energy storage power supply market environment and customer demand trends, with a view to occupying the market in advance and gaining a first-mover advantage. Because of this, a large number of excellent outdoor energy storage power supply brands have risen rapidly and gradually become leaders in the industry. The industry research network uses a variety of information processing technologies to collect, organize, process, and analyze massive data in the outdoor energy storage power industry market, and provides customers with a package of information solutions and consulting services to minimize the cost of outdoor energy storage power customers. Investment risks and operating costs, grasp investment opportunities, and improve corporate competitiveness.
